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John Isaacs Reviews the Senate Campaign Fundraising Reports

Last updated: October 31, 2009

Analyzing candidates’ fundraising reports is one barometer of the state of a Senate contest months before the actual election.

One candidate far exceeding the fundraising total of his or her opponent has a significant leg up on the competition. Candidates lagging far behind at this early stage of the competition – or have not even decided whether to run – have a lot of catching up to do.

Where the fundraising totals are close between candidates, it is likely that the Senate contest will be very competitive.

The John Isaacs rule of thumb is that candidates can overcome a 2 to 1 spending disadvantage if they have resources for a significant television advertising buy – particularly if the party committees help out. Larger spending advantages are harder to overcome.

These assumptions are used to examine the fundraising reports filed by Senate candidates on October 15, detailing fundraising for the previous three months. The two key figures examined here are how much was raised in the last quarter and how much the campaigns have in cash on-hand.

Take the Arkansas Senate contest. Republicans assert, and some polls confirm, that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is vulnerable. However, Lincoln is sitting on $4.1 million cash on-hand and has no opponent has raised more than half a million dollars.

Similarly, there are polls in Nevada indicating that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is vulnerable. Yet Reid is a fundraising machine with over $8.7 million in the bank and no major challenger as of yet.

In Colorado, appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) has done a good job of fundraising and has $2.9 million in the bank. Former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton (R) got into the contest fairly recently, had half half a million dollars in the bank, with other Republican opponents trailing that figure. Ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) launched a primary challenge to Bennet, but hs had only $243,000 in the bank.

The shoe is on the other foot in North Carolina, where polls show that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) is vulnerable, but with $3.5 million in the bank. His one opponent thus far, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), has only $164,000 in the bank.

In all these campaigns, it is getting late to find serious candidates who can raise lots of money – although millionaire self-funders are in a class by themselves. Moreover, the national political committees and independent expenditures from outside groups can do much to make up deficits, but the candidates will have a lot of catching up to do.

Click here for complete listing of third quarter fundraising totals

Some of the closest contests at this time:

Arkansas: Republicans hope to upset Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), but with $4.1 million in the bank, she has a major fundraising advantage over any potential GOP opponent.

Colorado: Political newcomer Michael Bennet (D) is way ahead with $2.8 million in the bank, with every other challenger in both parties having less than half a million dollars.

Connecticut: Incumbent Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) is in serious political trouble. He $2.1 million in the bank, but three Republican challengers, former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) and World Wresting Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R), all have over a million dollars in their campaign treasuries.The last two are self funders. McMahon may spend as much as $30 million.

Delaware: U.S. Representative Mike Castle (R) has decided to run and has $853,000 in his campaign treasury. Democrats are waiting for Attorney General and VEEP son Beau Biden (D-DE), who has returned from a posting in Iraq, to see if he is going to run.

Florida: Democrats have a serious candidate for this open seat in U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek (D-FL), who has a formidable $2.7 million in the bank. But Governor Charles Crist (R-FL) already has $6.2 million and the Rebublican challenger former Florida state Speaker Marco Rubio (R) had $903,000.

Illinois: The two main contestents, Republican U.S. Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) and State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL) each had over $2.3 million in the bank. But both have primary challengers, including two Democratic self-funders.

Kansas: Republicans have two serious candidates and Democrats zero for this open seat. Two GOP House members, Reps. Todd Tiahrt (R-KA) and Jerry Moran (R-KA) are running against each other in a primary. Moran has $3.5 million in his account while Tiahrt has $1.4 million.

Kentucky: Attorney General Jack Conway (D-KY) had $1.6 million in his campaign treasury at the end of September compared to $751,000 for Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo (D-KY), On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R-KY) had $1.1 million but his insurgent opponent, eye surgeon Rand Paul (R) (the son of former Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul) had $912,000.

Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) has been considered to be in trouble since his involvement in a prostitution scandal, but did not have major opposition until U.S. Representative Charlie Melancon (D-LA) indicated he would run. Vitter had $3.9 million in the bank at the end of September, compared to $1.8 million in Melancon’s account.

Missouri: Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D-MO) is running against U.S. Representative Roy Blunt (R-MO) for this open seat and they are very competitive financially and in the polls. Blunt has $2.3 million in his account to Carnahan’s $1.8 million.

Nevada: Polls show Sen. Majority Leader in serious trouble, but his overwhelming money advantage -- he had $8.7 million in his account at the end of September -- threatens to swamp any opponent.

New Hampshire: This state is likely to have a close race. U.S. Representative Paul Hodes (D-NH) will be the Democratic nominee and faces a formidable opponent, former New Hampshire attorney general Kelly Ayotte (R-NH). The Democrat has $1.1 million in his campaign treasury while Ayotte had $563,000. Ayotte, however, faces Republican primary opposition.

New York: Appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) from upstate New York may not have a serious Republican opponent. At the end of September, Gillibrand had $4.2 million in the bank.

North Carolina: Democrats hope to be competitive in the Tarheel State, but will have a long way to go to catch up with Senator Burr's (R) campaign treasury.

Ohio: In the Buckeye state, ex-U.S. Rep. and ex-Office of Management and Budget director Rob Portman (R-OH) has a significant fundraising advantage with $5.2 million in his campaign treasury. Democrats face a primary between Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D-OH) and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D-OH). Fisher had $1.6 million and Brunner only $112,000. Polls show a close contest.

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter’s (R turned D-PA), following his surprising party switch in April 2009, is ahead in the polls against U.S. Representative Joseph Sestak (D-PA) and close with likely Republican nominee, former Conservative Club for Growth president Pat Toomey (R-PA). Specter is a terrific fundraiser, but so too is Sestak. Specter had $8.7 million in his campaign treasury at the end of September compared to $4.7 million for Sestak. Toomey trailed with $1.8 million.