Council for a livable World Reviews the 2010 Senate Elections

The landscape - last updated Feb. 8, 2010

Big news on the Senate front. In the first weeks of 2010, Senate contests underwent dramatic changes.

The most stunning development was the unexpected upset victory of Scott Brown (R) over Martha Coakley (D) in the special election to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy. The bluest of states went for a conservative Republican in a repudiation of both Coakley and national Democrats.

Two senior Democrats, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, announced their retirement. Then the Vice President's son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, decided not to run for Senate.

In Connecticut, the retirement is good news for Democrats. Dodd was considered a dead duck by many, hurt by his run for the presidency, his banking ties and allegations of sweetheart real estate deals. His replacement is the popular state attorney general Richard Blumenthal, who is now overwhelmingly favored.

In North Dakota, Dorgan’s departure is good news for the Republicans. Well-liked Republican Governor John Hoeven is running for the Senate seat and is a shoe-in.

In Delaware, Republican U.S. Representative Mike Castle went from even money to overwhelming favorite.

If the elections were held soon, after months of seeing the President’s top priority of health care reform battered in Congress and across the country, as well as the uncertain economy, Republicans would score significant gains.

If the status quo continues until election day, woe is to the President’s party. But if the economy continues to improve and if a significant health care bill passes Congress and is signed by the President, the results are likely to be significantly different.

As there are so many uncertainties and there will be other surprises ahead, predictions of November 2010 results are questionable at best.

18 Democratic seats up for election

Evan Bayh (IN)
Michael Bennet (CO)
Barbara Boxer (CA)
Roland Burris (IL) (retiring)
Christopher Dodd (CT) (retiring)
Byron Dorgan (ND) (retiring)
Russell Feingold (WI)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Daniel Inouye (HI)
Ted Kaufman (DE) (retiring)
Paul Kirk (MA) - Scott Brown (R) elected in Jan. 19 special election
Patrick Leahy (VT)
Blanche Lincoln (AR)
Barbara Mikulski (MD)
Patty Murray (WA)
Harry Reid (NV)
Charles Schumer (NY)
Arlen Specter (PA)
Ron Wyden (OR)

19 Republican seats up for election

Robert Bennett (UT)
Christopher Bond (MO) (retiring)
Sam Brownback (KS) (retiring)
Jim Bunning (KY) (retiring)
Richard Burr (NC)
Tom Coburn (OK)
Mike Crapo (ID)
Jim DeMint (SC)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Judd Gregg (NH) (retiring)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (may be retiring)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
George Lemieux (FL) - replacement for Mel Martinez (FL) (retiring)
John McCain (AZ)
Lisa Murkowski (AK)
Richard Shelby (AL)
John Thune (SD)
David Vitter (LA)
George Voinovich (OH) (retiring)

The battleground states

Arizona: Having recovered from running for President, Sen. John McCain (R) is being challenged from the right in a GOP primary by former U.S. Representative J.D. Hayworth. Hayworth quit is jobs as a radio talk-show host to challenge McCain for being insufficiently conservative. Polls show McCain running substantially ahead, but McCain, in a sign of nervousness, has run ads against his opponent. McCain also had $5.3 million in his campaign treasury at the end of December.

Arkansas: Republicans have long suggested that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is in political trouble, and polls confirm that notion. Lincoln is running behind any of several lesser-known candidates: state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Safe Foods Corp CEO Curtis Coleman (R), Iraq, Afghanistan veteran Tom Cotton (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R) and 2004 Senate nominee Jim Holt (R). Most recently, U.S. Rep. John Boozman entered the contest. Still, the incumbent had more than $5 million in her campaign treasury at the end of December, far ahead of any potential opponent. She also recently became chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which should help her politically in the state.

California: The nation’s largest state may become a battleground as ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) is challenging Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Boxer should prevail, but Fiorina will have plenty of money. Assemblyman Chuck Devore (R) is also in the contest and is the conservative favorite. In January 2010, former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell (R), the 2000 nominee for Senate, dropped out of the contest for Governor to run for Senate. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Boxer]

Colorado: Political newcomer Michael Bennet (D) was appointed to replace Sen. Ken Salazar (D), who resigned to become the new Secretary of Interior. Well-regarded for his performance as superintendent of Denver public schools, Bennet is little known to voters across the state. Republicans are sure to mount a stiff challenge. Polls point to a close contest in the general election. Bennet had $3.5 million in the bank at the end of December. Bennet has many GOP candidates running against him: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), Aurora City Councilman, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton (R), ex-state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) and others. However, Bennet's political life is complicated by a primary challenge from ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D). Romanoff had only $480,000 in his campaign account.[Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Bennet]

Connecticut: Incumbent Sen. Chris Dodd (D) announced his retirement in early 2010. The decision is good news for Democrats. Dodd was considered a dead duck by many, hurt by his run for the presidency, his banking ties and allegations of sweetheart real estate deals. Dodd faced a strong challenge from former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and World Wresting Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R). McMahon may spend as much as $50 million. State attorney general Richard Blumenthal, who once worked for Dodd and is immensely popular, is running for Dodd's seat and is favored to win. Polls show Blumenthal way ahead of either Republican.

Delaware: Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) is Sen. Joseph Biden’s former chief of staff. Upon taking office, he announced that he will hold the seat for only two years. Popular U.S. Rep. Mike Castle (R) has decided to run, but Attorney General Beau Biden (D), one of Biden’s sons, surprised many by announcing he will not run. Consider this a likely Republican pick-up in November. But Democrats think that New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) will give Castle a run for his money.

Florida: This Senate contest for the seat of Sen. Mel Martinez (R) -- who retired early and was temporarily replaced by George Lemieux (R) -- took a dramatic turn when popular Governor Charles Crist (R) entered the contest in May. He is being challenged from the right by former Florida state Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and on the left by U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). While Crist has his detractors, he had been favored to win the seat. He had $7.6 million in his treasury at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009. However, conservatives are promoting Rubio as a viable alternative to Crist, and Rubio was endorsed by the Club for Growth in November, giving him greater visibility. Rubio had $2.1 million cash-on-hand at the end of December. A Quinnipiac Univ. poll conducted January 20-24 shows Rubio, who trailed by a great margin a few months ago, has gone ahead of Crist by 47% - 44%. Meek will be competitive, having $3.4 million in the bank at the end of December. However, in early October, ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre (D) entered the Democratic primary.

Illinois: Former Governor Rod Blagojevich’s (D) appointment of Sen. Roland Burris (D) embarrassed state and national Democrats, but Burris announced he will not run in 2010. State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) won the Democratic primary on Februry 2 and will face suburban Chicago U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R). Polls show a very competitive contest in November.

Indiana: Republicans, smelling (Brown) blood in the water have convinced former Sen. Dan Coats (R) to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D). Bayh has been very popular in the state and had $13 million in his campaign kitty at the end of December.

Iowa: Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R) armor has been a bit dented by some of his statements on health care reform, but he remains far in front of potential challengers, 1982 Governor nominee Roxanne Conlin (D), ex-state senator Tom Flegen (D) and ex-state representative Bob Krause (D). Grassley had $5.1 million in the bank at the end of December.

Kansas: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) , currently serving his second term in the U.S. Senate, has kept his promise to retire after two terms. Two GOP House members, Reps. Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran are running against each other in a primary. The Republican primary winner is almost surely the general election winner. Democrats have not won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932.

Kentucky: Two-term incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning (R) announced at the end of July 2009 that he would retire at the end of his term. Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) has establishment support, although he faces primary opposition from U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's son Rand (R), an eye surgeon, who is running well. Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), who ran in 2004, is running against state Attorney General Jack Conway (D). Conway had $1.7 million in his campaign treasury at the end of December, twice as much as Mongiardo.

Louisiana: Democrats have been targeting Sen. David Vitter (R) (Mr. Family Values) since his name was found in the D.C. Madam’s list of prostitutes’ customers. U.S. Rep. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is expected to provide a strong challenge to the incumbent. Vitter had $4.5 million in the bank at the end of December, compared to $2.0 million for Melancon.

Massachusetts: State Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) won the December 8 primary in the special election to succeed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) but then on January 19 lost to State Sen. Scott Brown (R) in an amazing upset that only developed in the last few weeks of the campaign. The election was a repudiation of both Coakley and Obama policies. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Coakley]

Missouri: Sen. Kit Bond (R) , who survived a series of credible Democratic challengers over the years has announced his retirement. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D), the daughter of a recent governor and senator and sister of a congressman, is the Democratic nominee. Polls show her running close to Republican U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt. This is a toss-up race. Blunt has a $2.9 to $2.1 millionl fundraising lead over Carnahan at the end of 2009. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Carnahan]

Nevada: In 2004, Republicans upset Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle and hope to repeat that victory by defeating Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010. While Reid triumphed handily in 2004, he won by only 428 votes six years earlier, and polls show him trailing in this election. But at the end of December, Reid had $8.7 million in the bank. The National Republican Senatorial Committee began running attack ads against Reid in January 2009. Polls showed both state GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) and ex-UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian (R) beating Reid, but both are far behind the incumbent in fundraising.

New Hampshire: This state has been voting increasingly Democratic as evidenced by the defeat of both Republican House members in 2006 and Sen. John Sununu in 2008. Democrats are optimistic about winning another Senate seat in 2010, particularly after Senator Judd Gregg (R) announced his retirement. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) will be the Democratic nominee. Former New Hampshire attorney general Kelly Ayotte is the favorite for the Republican nomination, but faces primary competition from ex-gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne (R), businessman Jim Bender (R) and businessman William Binnie (R). Polls show Ayotte running slightly ahead of Hodes.[Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Hodes]

New York: Gov. David Paterson’s selected little-known U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) from upstate New York to replace former Senator and now Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Gillibrand is an effective fundraiser and a formidable campaigner, but not well known across the Empire state. The state’s Democratic leanings make her the early favorite, and she had $5.2 million in the bank at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009. Former Tennessee U.S. Representative Harold Ford (D) may run. Republicans are praying that former Gov. George Pataki (R) will get into the contest.

North Carolina: North Carolina was carried by Barack Obama in 2008 and elected Sen. Kay Hagan (D) over incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). Democrats have turned their sights on Sen. Richard Burr (R) . In early September, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), who ran once before, entered the contest. Ex-state Senator Cal Cunningham (D), an Iraq War veteran, has also declared his candidacy. Polling shows Burr ahead of potential challengers and had $4.3 million in his campaign account at the end of December. But he may be subject to the anti-incumbent feeling across the country.

North Dakota: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) unexpectedly announced at the beginning of 2010 that he will not run again. Popular Governor John Hoeven (R) has entered the contest and is heavily favored to win no matter who his opposition is. Polls show Hoeven way ahead of potential opponents.

Ohio: Ex-U.S. Rep. and ex-Office of Management and Budget director Rob Portman (R) declared his candidacy immediately after the announced retirement of Sen. George Voinovich (R). He is running largely unopposed for the GOP nomination. Democrats face a primary between Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Both the primary and general election are wide open. Portman led with a solid $6.0 million in his campaign treasury at the end of December compared to $1.8 million for Fisher and only $61,000 for Brunner. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Fisher]

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter’s (R turned D) surprising party switch in April 2009 totall shook up this contest. Threatened with defeat at the hands of former Consyervative Club for Growth president Pat Toomey (R), who almost defeated Specter in a 2004 primary, Specter decided to run as a Democrat. The result is that Toomey is the GOP nominee. But the newly minted Democrat faces primary opposition from U.S. Rep. Joseph Sestak (D). Specter had $8.7 million in his campaign treasury at the end of September compared to $5.1 million for Sestak. Toomey trailed with $2.8 million. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Sestak]

South Carolina: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) is favored in a very conservative state, but will face a challenge from Attorney Chad McGowan (D).

Texas: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) made it semi-official at the end of July that she would step down early from her Senate seat to run for governor. In November, she said she would step down after the March primary, win or lose, but it is still not clear when or whether there will be a special election. The leading Republican contender for the seat is state Attorney General Greg Abbott (R). The leading Democratic contender is ex-Comptroller John Sharp (D).

Utah: This is a state where Democrats need not apply, but Republicans sometimes have inter-party brawls. Sen. Robert Bennett (R) is getting major caucus and primary competition from three Republicans: WebsTarget marketing VP Cherilyn Eagar (R), venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater (R) and, most recently, ex Gov. Huntsman general counsel Mike Lee (R). The challengers charge that Bennett is not sufficiently conservative and has "gone Wahsington." There is a May 8 state convention to endorse a Republican nominee.

Wisconsin: Real estate developer Terrence Wall (R) and entrepreneur and small business owner Dave Westlake (R) are challenging Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Wall may spend large amounts of money, but both Republicans remain underdogs.[Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Feingold]